* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/13/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 33 34 38 46 48 51 56 59 61 63 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 33 34 38 46 48 51 56 59 61 63 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 36 36 38 41 43 46 50 53 56 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 7 6 6 10 15 15 14 9 12 16 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 2 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 59 48 27 45 49 83 78 70 77 91 122 126 112 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 161 160 159 157 154 152 152 151 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -52.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 9 7 7 11 8 9 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 57 54 50 45 44 48 53 57 61 61 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 7 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 26 24 24 23 34 36 61 78 79 83 75 94 200 MB DIV 37 51 54 48 33 56 1 -8 -20 -14 -24 -7 12 700-850 TADV -1 1 4 7 9 7 15 9 3 0 0 2 7 LAND (KM) 268 203 138 137 152 222 331 437 515 568 615 652 680 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.3 17.9 17.0 15.9 15.2 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 106.8 106.0 105.6 105.2 105.0 105.2 105.9 106.8 107.8 108.8 109.5 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 40 46 47 39 39 39 45 32 12 10 12 14 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 3. 11. 13. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/13/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/13/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##