* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 10/13/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 42 43 40 37 37 31 27 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 42 43 36 34 33 28 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 31 32 35 40 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 25 27 27 26 28 31 38 51 38 3 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -2 -6 -4 2 -3 0 8 8 2 15 22 24 SHEAR DIR 226 240 251 248 234 243 214 216 221 222 321 86 97 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.5 26.7 26.6 26.4 16.5 11.6 6.2 7.5 7.3 6.9 5.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 133 125 125 124 76 70 66 64 63 63 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 123 116 116 114 73 68 65 63 62 62 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -54.4 -54.4 -55.3 -56.0 -55.4 -56.1 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 61 59 60 53 44 48 49 42 48 52 57 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -34 -16 4 34 27 0 30 43 54 38 54 41 200 MB DIV 52 60 70 79 65 37 106 102 69 38 -11 -12 3 700-850 TADV 7 13 25 18 30 0 -14 -95 -37 22 20 -18 -8 LAND (KM) 722 783 700 630 636 591 259 7 213 414 519 506 335 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 28.5 29.9 32.0 34.0 38.2 42.9 47.5 51.6 54.7 56.7 58.1 59.1 LONG(DEG W) 72.8 72.3 71.8 70.5 69.2 64.9 60.5 56.4 52.4 50.1 50.5 53.3 57.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 19 23 25 28 28 26 20 13 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 18 8 4 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 2. -4. -10. -10. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 17. 18. 15. 12. 12. 6. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 10/13/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 10/13/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 10/13/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)