* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/14/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 45 52 58 62 65 64 62 61 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 45 52 58 62 65 64 62 61 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 38 39 43 47 51 55 58 61 61 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 7 11 15 18 19 15 15 22 31 38 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 0 -1 3 4 0 0 0 1 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 53 42 28 57 66 56 67 76 108 118 109 102 101 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 159 158 156 152 152 151 151 150 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 12 9 10 8 8 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 45 46 42 40 41 43 45 49 57 64 65 63 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 9 11 13 13 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 29 34 47 48 69 80 84 94 86 103 110 200 MB DIV 38 22 10 9 18 9 0 -10 -7 -15 -7 33 35 700-850 TADV 0 4 4 4 7 10 8 6 1 0 0 6 2 LAND (KM) 161 157 154 185 226 334 452 536 586 618 639 675 722 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 18.9 18.5 18.0 17.5 16.5 15.6 15.1 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 106.4 106.1 106.0 105.9 106.1 106.7 107.4 108.1 108.6 108.9 109.4 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 51 50 46 36 20 38 31 10 10 12 12 14 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 10. 8. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 29. 27. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/14/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/14/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##