* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/14/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 43 50 52 55 57 60 59 59 57 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 43 50 52 55 57 60 59 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 44 46 49 51 53 55 58 59 60 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 14 18 20 20 14 22 21 29 32 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 2 0 3 0 0 0 3 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 36 40 43 43 43 56 71 88 114 93 93 96 94 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 158 157 156 153 152 150 150 151 149 147 149 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 11 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 42 39 37 38 41 45 48 54 65 64 68 62 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 9 13 13 13 13 14 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 41 48 48 65 83 71 88 82 80 100 112 200 MB DIV 7 4 11 5 5 26 2 -22 -20 2 22 48 64 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 5 10 9 5 1 -3 -2 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 185 198 211 237 276 408 543 601 623 640 714 729 698 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 18.8 18.4 17.8 17.2 16.1 15.2 14.9 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 106.8 106.7 106.5 106.3 106.8 107.7 108.2 108.4 108.8 109.7 109.9 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 5 6 6 6 5 2 1 3 2 0 2 HEAT CONTENT 51 48 44 34 22 34 9 11 12 12 13 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 7. 7. 7. 9. 6. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 12. 15. 17. 20. 19. 19. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/14/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/14/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##