* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 10/14/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 46 50 50 47 44 40 36 34 32 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 46 50 40 38 35 30 26 24 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 35 33 32 32 35 40 48 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 30 31 28 23 34 37 37 3 7 2 6 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 3 6 16 6 9 13 3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 258 256 253 254 230 210 223 221 307 82 74 263 253 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.8 24.7 18.7 12.4 5.9 6.2 6.8 4.9 3.1 2.4 2.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 128 109 81 72 67 65 64 63 61 58 56 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 119 101 77 70 66 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.1 -53.7 -51.6 -50.4 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 50 45 45 41 48 47 53 61 66 79 83 82 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 40 72 68 27 11 39 59 40 29 148 176 163 200 MB DIV 59 58 59 55 60 83 79 77 61 8 4 -5 -27 700-850 TADV 20 52 12 -38 -20 -38 17 14 9 -10 -12 0 -2 LAND (KM) 630 691 635 481 333 84 72 333 458 341 164 63 67 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 34.6 36.8 39.3 41.7 46.9 51.8 55.5 58.0 60.1 61.6 62.2 62.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 68.4 66.6 64.4 62.2 57.9 54.5 52.6 54.1 57.9 61.5 63.3 63.2 STM SPEED (KT) 25 27 28 30 30 29 23 16 13 13 8 3 0 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 19 CX,CY: 6/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 9. 3. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 10. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 20. 17. 14. 10. 6. 4. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 10/14/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 10/14/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 10/14/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)