* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/14/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 41 47 49 56 58 59 60 61 63 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 41 47 49 56 58 59 60 61 63 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 35 35 37 38 40 43 46 49 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 12 18 21 22 21 17 18 21 27 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 -2 2 -3 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 39 52 47 52 57 71 75 84 102 117 103 97 96 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 154 153 153 152 151 148 148 150 150 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 9 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 38 37 37 37 41 50 52 58 59 63 67 56 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 11 14 12 14 13 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 49 47 52 72 78 71 84 74 88 102 106 200 MB DIV -3 21 10 -6 -15 17 -21 -17 -13 -16 39 69 55 700-850 TADV 2 1 4 7 12 7 6 0 0 1 6 3 5 LAND (KM) 195 222 252 316 385 536 632 658 644 644 658 664 644 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.3 17.8 17.1 16.4 15.0 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.2 14.7 14.7 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 106.8 106.7 106.8 106.9 107.2 108.1 108.8 109.2 109.2 108.8 108.9 109.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 7 5 4 3 1 1 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 48 41 34 15 22 9 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 5. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 14. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/14/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/14/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##