* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/14/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 42 44 46 52 56 59 57 58 58 62 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 42 44 46 52 56 59 57 58 58 62 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 42 43 44 45 47 50 53 54 56 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 18 20 20 21 19 17 20 29 29 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 1 1 0 -2 -2 0 -4 -4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 46 37 50 58 55 75 89 110 108 102 99 95 83 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 154 154 152 152 151 150 149 147 144 144 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 38 37 38 40 41 48 54 61 58 59 53 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 12 13 12 13 13 13 11 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 43 48 46 53 63 76 69 85 79 86 100 105 110 200 MB DIV 10 2 0 0 21 4 -27 -25 -5 25 38 47 43 700-850 TADV 1 4 8 11 7 3 2 -2 -1 2 2 3 -1 LAND (KM) 235 272 314 388 464 581 632 663 675 692 709 709 693 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 17.8 17.2 16.5 15.8 14.8 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 106.9 106.9 107.1 107.3 107.7 108.4 109.0 109.5 109.9 110.2 110.2 110.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 0 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 40 30 17 14 18 9 11 13 14 21 20 20 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 3. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 16. 19. 17. 18. 18. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/14/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/14/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##