* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/15/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 44 46 50 47 49 50 47 47 46 45 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 44 46 50 47 49 50 47 47 46 45 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 43 45 46 46 47 47 46 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 19 25 20 23 24 25 36 35 35 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 2 -1 0 0 -2 2 -2 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 30 49 52 40 63 79 102 107 106 104 103 94 102 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 153 152 152 152 149 148 148 148 149 148 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 9 10 8 8 7 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 40 41 42 43 43 48 55 59 61 59 54 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 14 15 16 13 15 14 12 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 54 64 74 72 59 72 70 89 107 111 101 200 MB DIV 4 17 20 50 20 -22 -47 -6 6 65 68 61 64 700-850 TADV 3 10 13 7 7 6 0 1 1 7 5 8 3 LAND (KM) 206 271 340 396 452 557 642 653 621 629 683 675 636 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.4 16.7 16.2 15.7 15.0 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.3 15.0 15.0 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 106.5 106.6 106.8 106.9 107.6 108.7 109.1 109.0 109.1 109.5 109.4 109.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 0 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 36 13 14 28 26 8 12 13 12 12 14 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 5. 7. 7. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 6. 10. 7. 9. 10. 7. 7. 6. 5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/15/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/15/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##