* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/15/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 32 33 36 38 42 41 41 41 43 47 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 32 33 36 38 42 41 41 41 43 47 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 31 31 31 33 35 36 36 36 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 21 19 20 15 20 28 29 37 35 30 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 -4 -4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 45 48 53 65 75 79 115 118 106 100 102 92 93 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 153 153 152 151 149 146 146 146 148 149 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 41 40 40 40 43 52 59 57 57 53 52 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 12 11 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 36 50 56 72 78 71 63 60 73 83 97 107 103 200 MB DIV 14 -1 -1 -4 -2 -10 -29 -9 7 45 54 54 51 700-850 TADV 8 10 8 7 2 3 -1 0 2 2 5 2 0 LAND (KM) 261 332 404 473 542 641 702 714 715 732 777 768 738 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 16.9 16.2 15.7 15.1 14.6 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.2 14.8 14.6 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 106.7 106.9 107.2 107.5 108.4 109.2 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.5 110.2 109.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 27 18 9 12 13 14 18 16 13 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3. 7. 6. 6. 6. 8. 12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/15/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/15/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##