* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 10/15/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 45 53 61 63 65 60 55 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 30 29 27 33 41 43 45 40 32 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 26 26 27 31 36 43 51 54 45 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 14 11 14 14 8 9 9 18 18 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -5 -4 -1 0 7 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 125 187 201 179 176 170 135 119 139 170 198 167 162 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 150 148 147 146 145 146 146 144 145 148 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 138 136 135 132 131 131 129 129 131 137 152 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.5 -52.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 7 5 8 6 6 1 2 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 77 72 74 69 62 52 51 57 65 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 14 14 15 14 13 12 9 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 115 127 140 138 123 110 95 96 100 47 -4 -35 200 MB DIV 108 113 101 88 85 84 77 57 42 24 45 37 19 700-850 TADV 2 12 12 6 6 4 2 0 7 2 -2 17 22 LAND (KM) 168 97 47 -15 -78 -86 58 177 209 216 119 -18 -197 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.9 20.0 20.3 20.4 20.3 19.7 18.7 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.8 87.1 87.7 88.2 89.7 91.1 92.2 93.1 93.9 94.8 95.8 97.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 5 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 68 63 54 38 84 35 7 22 24 23 31 0 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 36. 38. 40. 35. 30. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 10/15/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 10/15/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 10/15/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)