* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/15/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 30 30 33 36 37 39 38 42 46 51 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 30 30 33 36 37 39 38 42 46 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 32 32 32 34 35 36 36 37 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 18 20 19 12 25 33 32 34 27 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 1 0 0 -3 -7 -7 -2 -2 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 56 58 66 68 76 98 116 127 107 114 97 96 56 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 152 152 152 151 147 145 145 146 147 144 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 41 39 40 42 49 54 58 56 57 52 53 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 13 12 11 11 9 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 47 52 73 77 70 54 55 57 73 85 101 90 62 200 MB DIV 8 -5 -14 -11 -24 -19 -17 -13 6 49 51 54 27 700-850 TADV 11 8 7 2 4 2 1 2 4 0 5 1 -1 LAND (KM) 321 392 463 517 572 647 691 721 722 722 722 723 739 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.3 15.7 15.3 14.9 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 106.9 107.1 107.4 107.7 108.5 109.4 109.9 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.2 110.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 2 0 0 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 23 21 10 9 12 13 14 14 14 14 17 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -5. -2. 1. 2. 4. 4. 8. 11. 16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/15/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/15/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##