* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 10/15/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 40 47 52 57 59 59 58 58 56 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 33 39 43 36 30 28 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 25 26 26 31 35 41 37 30 28 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 21 20 16 12 14 13 21 24 16 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 0 1 2 2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 181 189 191 189 177 165 107 94 126 141 145 151 181 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.4 30.0 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 147 146 146 147 145 147 158 169 172 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 134 136 134 134 135 133 136 149 163 169 165 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 6 4 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 82 77 74 70 72 66 62 60 57 64 73 68 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 13 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 125 140 148 153 152 130 123 118 124 90 33 3 -5 200 MB DIV 107 90 84 76 86 102 81 42 57 109 90 76 49 700-850 TADV 9 5 4 11 13 2 5 0 18 18 13 -3 8 LAND (KM) 37 -20 -78 -162 -80 78 90 68 -43 -184 -34 83 115 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.6 19.3 19.0 18.4 17.5 16.6 16.3 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.7 88.2 89.0 89.8 91.5 93.1 94.4 95.6 96.9 98.6 100.6 103.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 7 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 57 86 84 0 31 7 16 38 49 51 59 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 27. 32. 34. 34. 33. 33. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 10/15/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 10/15/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 10/15/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)