* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 10/16/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 49 54 57 57 56 56 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 30 38 42 46 40 31 28 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 30 33 38 44 41 31 28 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 21 15 18 13 15 15 18 11 5 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 177 187 165 173 189 120 96 98 144 181 253 278 250 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.5 30.0 30.0 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 146 146 147 145 146 149 160 170 171 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 135 134 134 134 132 133 138 151 163 165 170 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 7 7 5 9 5 6 2 2 1 7 700-500 MB RH 79 75 70 69 68 61 54 47 56 62 61 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 15 15 14 14 10 9 9 8 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 143 150 153 149 140 131 109 100 81 30 -4 -19 23 200 MB DIV 87 81 77 89 69 84 43 14 58 68 62 30 5 700-850 TADV 5 5 7 11 7 8 0 6 7 -3 0 5 4 LAND (KM) -31 -107 -146 -63 19 100 127 84 -39 -231 -136 -66 19 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.0 18.5 18.3 18.6 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.8 88.5 89.2 90.0 90.8 92.3 93.7 94.9 96.4 98.2 100.2 102.5 105.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 80 0 0 31 2 15 18 30 53 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 24. 29. 32. 32. 31. 31. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 10/16/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 10/16/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 10/16/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)