* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 10/16/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 51 57 58 55 50 46 43 40 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 33 39 45 46 43 38 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 31 35 40 47 52 53 36 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 18 17 11 10 13 26 10 6 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 0 -3 -5 -1 3 1 3 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 194 194 185 185 184 124 131 163 181 192 177 169 250 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 146 145 147 146 146 147 149 154 159 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 132 132 132 132 130 129 132 135 140 147 151 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 8 8 7 2 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 77 71 72 68 63 59 48 44 52 51 50 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 155 153 143 127 118 111 94 96 56 -13 -61 -67 -19 200 MB DIV 65 70 85 74 83 65 20 37 28 14 34 -9 6 700-850 TADV 6 5 7 1 0 2 3 8 4 14 16 5 -2 LAND (KM) -60 -137 -109 -33 41 178 287 279 167 22 -106 -226 -335 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.1 21.0 20.6 20.1 19.9 20.3 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.7 89.4 90.1 90.8 92.1 93.2 94.1 95.1 96.4 97.7 99.3 100.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 86 0 35 37 5 20 29 26 24 8 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 21. 27. 28. 25. 20. 16. 13. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 10/16/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 10/16/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 10/16/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)