* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 10/16/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 43 47 54 59 62 60 51 40 32 29 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 34 39 42 39 32 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 32 38 45 50 45 41 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 15 7 8 13 23 33 56 73 68 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 1 6 4 5 12 7 SHEAR DIR 157 183 193 223 165 141 171 187 195 187 200 202 220 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.1 26.1 22.5 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 145 145 144 144 144 149 154 145 122 97 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 131 129 128 128 127 140 156 149 120 93 73 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -51.3 -50.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 7 6 9 8 8 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 67 66 53 44 33 28 29 36 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 159 146 127 121 125 98 79 74 115 72 62 69 157 200 MB DIV 70 77 70 52 56 32 16 10 16 -10 14 38 81 700-850 TADV 7 7 4 2 0 -2 -1 -32 -75 -210 -158 -100 -96 LAND (KM) -46 -110 -121 -82 -43 49 147 223 308 168 227 304 84 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.4 22.3 23.4 25.5 29.4 34.5 39.8 45.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.5 89.0 89.5 89.9 90.5 90.6 89.1 85.1 79.2 73.7 67.8 59.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 6 5 4 4 6 15 27 33 35 37 39 HEAT CONTENT 83 0 36 36 39 6 13 22 61 27 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -5. -14. -20. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -8. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 24. 29. 32. 30. 21. 10. 2. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 10/16/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 10/16/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 10/16/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)