* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/16/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 35 41 49 53 54 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 35 41 49 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 37 38 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 26 23 28 32 37 37 32 27 21 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -3 -6 -6 -7 0 1 -1 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 80 90 100 101 103 104 89 91 89 86 60 100 93 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 150 149 149 148 148 149 147 145 147 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -54.4 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 50 52 55 54 55 58 58 53 55 62 68 74 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 7 10 12 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 74 66 59 56 51 55 64 80 97 95 70 51 50 200 MB DIV -23 -18 -38 -39 -32 -12 45 55 53 69 45 37 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 3 3 3 0 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 635 669 705 719 735 763 769 776 765 767 758 745 728 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.4 13.1 12.7 12.6 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 107.9 108.2 108.6 108.9 109.2 109.0 108.8 108.6 108.1 107.4 107.0 107.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 4 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -20. -19. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. 1. 4. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 23. 24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/16/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.5/ -0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/16/11 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING