* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 10/16/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 45 51 58 60 60 58 51 42 35 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 31 35 41 48 49 46 44 37 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 27 27 32 37 43 50 48 49 43 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 5 7 9 18 35 35 44 79 88 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -1 0 -1 0 10 15 17 14 -12 -3 SHEAR DIR 159 205 210 194 163 211 197 219 208 207 209 221 239 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.4 27.5 24.7 12.7 8.2 7.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 145 145 144 151 149 139 111 73 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 132 131 129 127 142 154 144 108 71 66 64 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -50.6 -50.5 -49.7 -50.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 5 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 73 68 59 58 49 41 36 32 35 45 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 15 16 17 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 153 126 110 95 84 41 116 168 175 226 294 237 138 200 MB DIV 96 88 63 51 60 33 42 38 77 109 185 121 33 700-850 TADV 6 7 2 3 1 0 -17 -17 -52 -31 17 91 -21 LAND (KM) 39 -36 -55 2 60 178 284 149 294 337 40 22 -155 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.8 24.1 26.5 31.3 37.7 44.5 50.0 52.2 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.7 88.3 88.9 89.4 89.8 88.6 83.9 77.1 71.2 66.7 63.4 60.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 6 6 6 16 31 39 39 34 22 15 HEAT CONTENT 54 88 30 0 3 20 33 8 19 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 2. -3. -11. -19. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 21. 28. 30. 30. 28. 21. 12. 5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 10/16/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 10/16/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 10/16/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)