* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/16/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 25 26 26 28 35 41 48 54 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 25 26 26 28 35 41 48 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 22 23 24 24 25 25 26 29 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 24 22 24 28 35 41 36 35 26 19 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -9 -3 3 0 -2 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 93 98 97 89 97 100 96 93 95 80 66 95 84 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 149 148 148 149 148 147 147 149 152 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 51 54 55 59 57 59 55 53 59 65 64 69 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 9 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 67 59 52 47 50 63 71 78 102 77 60 58 53 200 MB DIV -16 -52 -53 -34 -25 7 48 42 37 53 13 23 44 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 2 4 2 3 0 -3 -3 1 LAND (KM) 699 720 742 752 763 779 788 787 778 769 760 739 717 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.4 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.3 108.7 109.0 109.2 109.3 109.3 109.0 108.3 108.0 108.0 108.1 108.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 1 0 1 3 3 1 1 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -20. -19. -17. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 10. 17. 23. 29. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/16/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/16/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##