* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 10/17/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 58 58 57 51 41 33 22 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 50 57 50 49 44 34 29 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 34 37 41 46 44 43 38 30 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 7 8 14 33 45 50 83 96 66 79 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -1 2 0 2 8 9 13 4 -9 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 206 219 216 196 182 224 222 225 207 213 218 227 246 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.1 27.2 22.5 13.9 9.1 7.6 8.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 146 146 146 150 143 134 96 74 68 64 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 132 130 131 139 141 132 92 71 66 63 64 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -51.6 -50.9 -50.6 -51.1 -51.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 9 9 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 65 60 56 47 44 48 53 53 49 57 56 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 16 15 15 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 129 106 83 59 32 69 165 215 292 297 261 198 58 200 MB DIV 83 67 51 68 64 59 101 111 129 171 127 43 -22 700-850 TADV 6 4 3 3 0 1 7 52 -24 15 121 -39 -120 LAND (KM) 83 10 40 116 191 386 69 164 200 26 4 -123 1 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.3 25.0 27.7 32.0 37.5 43.6 49.0 51.4 50.7 LONG(DEG W) 86.3 86.8 87.3 87.5 87.7 87.0 83.5 78.2 73.1 69.4 66.6 64.2 59.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 8 7 8 15 26 33 34 31 21 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 69 18 2 10 11 106 7 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 1. -5. -15. -25. -32. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 28. 28. 27. 21. 11. 3. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 10/17/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 10/17/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 10/17/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)