* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932011 10/17/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 25 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 25 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 4 6 11 11 18 19 22 23 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -1 -1 -3 1 2 5 7 8 8 5 7 SHEAR DIR 173 220 136 180 187 208 215 216 240 250 267 251 253 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 140 140 140 140 140 140 141 143 144 144 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 51 54 54 51 49 47 45 42 43 42 46 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 34 28 25 20 12 5 -6 -5 -7 -8 -8 -12 -12 200 MB DIV 50 68 70 47 38 46 21 7 -3 18 50 83 72 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1263 1305 1351 1377 1406 1450 1481 1542 1621 1721 1839 1952 2075 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.2 11.5 11.6 11.4 11.1 10.9 10.7 LONG(DEG W) 162.5 163.3 164.0 164.6 165.2 166.5 168.0 169.3 170.5 171.6 172.8 174.0 175.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 20 18 17 19 48 51 59 55 22 58 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -19. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932011 INVEST 10/17/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932011 INVEST 10/17/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##