* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/17/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 22 22 24 24 25 28 32 37 41 47 V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 22 22 24 24 25 28 32 37 41 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 22 22 24 24 25 26 27 30 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 27 26 27 33 34 29 30 21 15 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -7 -6 -7 -7 0 5 0 -4 -2 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 94 88 85 92 102 98 97 96 100 90 100 105 112 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 150 149 149 151 150 148 151 153 151 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 7 7 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 56 58 60 56 60 57 52 53 60 61 65 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 57 55 50 53 62 66 76 86 84 55 49 53 45 200 MB DIV -48 -45 -28 -12 1 19 48 40 42 27 9 7 30 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -1 0 3 3 4 1 -1 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 695 707 720 718 717 755 779 766 749 714 679 592 485 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.4 13.4 13.8 14.8 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.5 108.8 109.1 109.3 109.6 109.7 109.1 108.3 107.7 107.7 107.9 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 4 4 2 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 11 11 10 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -17. -16. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/17/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/17/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##