* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 10/17/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 48 50 49 44 36 30 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 48 44 38 33 30 30 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 35 36 32 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 8 15 17 25 48 56 85 88 49 61 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 2 10 3 -16 -4 -8 -7 SHEAR DIR 237 219 190 211 228 222 219 215 206 210 223 235 240 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.2 27.1 23.0 18.2 12.6 11.0 10.6 9.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 147 148 143 132 98 80 69 63 64 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 130 129 133 136 129 93 75 66 61 62 63 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -50.5 -50.7 -52.1 -54.3 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 9 9 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 57 52 45 44 50 58 60 58 53 50 41 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 15 13 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 57 43 25 26 128 174 277 316 297 214 94 -26 200 MB DIV 57 56 70 64 60 77 100 168 177 129 41 -8 18 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 -1 4 -19 -68 42 -48 96 -12 -27 10 LAND (KM) 63 135 213 285 356 299 37 -33 -70 -344 -274 -112 -61 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.8 23.5 24.2 24.8 27.0 30.5 35.6 41.3 46.3 48.4 48.0 48.4 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.2 87.7 87.7 87.7 85.7 81.0 76.3 73.6 72.5 71.7 69.1 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 7 6 10 21 29 31 27 18 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 10 11 52 84 39 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 18. 20. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 3. -4. -15. -27. -32. -37. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 18. 20. 19. 14. 6. 0. -7. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 10/17/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 10/17/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 10/17/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)