* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932011 10/17/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 34 33 31 28 26 24 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 34 33 31 28 26 24 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 30 29 26 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 6 8 6 13 18 18 20 22 25 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 2 6 9 8 7 4 7 SHEAR DIR 134 135 133 156 157 205 203 223 240 269 293 290 281 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 140 140 140 141 143 144 147 149 149 149 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 -55.1 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 53 51 52 52 48 49 44 41 39 41 45 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 25 21 17 2 0 -2 -6 -13 -9 -9 -17 200 MB DIV 88 99 84 78 66 37 35 13 17 29 45 67 88 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -4 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1312 1345 1381 1408 1437 1477 1525 1626 1784 1988 2207 2419 2640 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.6 11.0 11.1 10.8 10.2 9.8 9.6 9.5 LONG(DEG W) 163.0 163.7 164.3 164.9 165.5 167.0 168.4 170.0 171.8 173.8 176.1 178.4 180.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 10 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 18 16 42 48 54 58 40 63 65 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -4. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932011 INVEST 10/17/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932011 INVEST 10/17/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##