* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 10/17/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 40 46 47 44 36 25 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 46 37 38 30 20 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 35 39 35 38 35 29 27 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 19 12 22 49 64 75 85 76 78 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 8 16 13 13 -1 -10 -11 SHEAR DIR 233 219 228 239 241 205 217 195 191 196 217 242 260 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 27.6 26.2 25.7 21.7 18.8 12.0 8.8 7.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 144 146 134 120 115 90 81 70 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 124 126 131 125 111 105 82 76 68 65 64 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 -51.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -51.1 -53.9 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 8 7 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 52 47 46 45 46 43 38 31 37 49 41 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 13 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 46 30 33 71 174 188 247 230 254 245 100 -83 200 MB DIV 56 69 60 48 39 64 91 96 57 47 57 17 -37 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 3 3 -37 -37 -125 -206 -68 -17 -7 -20 LAND (KM) 128 187 246 316 385 212 -17 66 63 27 -134 27 -98 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 11 18 21 21 22 26 25 19 16 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 31 76 104 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 17. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 3. -5. -16. -27. -35. -42. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 16. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 16. 17. 14. 6. -5. -13. -19. -25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 10/17/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 10/17/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 10/17/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)