* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932011 10/17/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 35 38 39 39 35 32 29 27 24 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 35 38 39 39 35 32 29 27 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 31 32 30 28 26 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 6 11 11 16 15 19 24 25 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -2 0 1 5 9 12 9 5 5 5 SHEAR DIR 121 128 174 171 203 201 211 227 242 284 288 284 270 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 141 140 140 140 142 144 148 149 149 149 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 52 52 50 48 47 46 46 43 41 45 46 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 21 16 12 6 -3 -4 -3 -9 -11 -15 -13 -24 200 MB DIV 97 74 62 53 48 28 33 15 31 48 89 76 101 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -6 -4 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1337 1360 1386 1417 1444 1475 1561 1692 1877 2076 2273 2463 2661 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.4 11.0 11.2 11.1 10.5 10.0 9.7 9.6 9.6 LONG(DEG W) 163.4 164.0 164.6 165.3 166.0 167.6 169.2 170.9 172.7 174.7 176.8 178.9 181.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 18 17 16 45 50 61 24 42 63 63 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 10. 7. 4. 2. -1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932011 INVEST 10/17/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932011 INVEST 10/17/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##