* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932011 10/17/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 33 35 34 32 28 25 23 22 19 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 33 35 34 32 28 25 23 22 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 28 28 27 25 23 20 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 7 9 11 15 17 20 21 24 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 4 8 7 7 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 147 174 242 206 235 209 236 257 273 279 277 271 258 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 140 140 139 139 140 142 144 145 146 145 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 52 46 47 45 45 44 42 40 44 43 47 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 16 9 3 -2 -6 -8 -7 -9 -18 -26 -35 -40 200 MB DIV 73 42 35 36 15 19 5 -3 -11 21 50 55 77 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1303 1326 1354 1386 1409 1444 1523 1639 1784 1925 2057 2187 2338 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.4 11.2 10.8 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.7 LONG(DEG W) 163.0 163.7 164.4 165.2 165.9 167.4 168.9 170.3 171.8 173.4 175.0 176.6 178.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 18 17 46 51 56 51 51 58 59 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932011 INVEST 10/17/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932011 INVEST 10/17/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##