* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 10/18/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 46 44 36 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 34 39 43 36 34 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 35 34 38 37 31 32 28 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 13 22 28 19 26 60 97 106 92 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -7 -5 4 13 11 7 -8 -16 -11 -4 SHEAR DIR 230 221 189 167 178 204 197 216 234 254 275 297 297 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.1 26.7 22.3 12.5 7.6 12.9 15.2 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 142 145 152 145 130 97 74 70 74 76 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 123 129 135 147 152 132 93 72 69 71 73 75 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -52.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 12 11 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 46 47 40 39 35 39 47 51 51 46 46 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 63 61 90 117 97 67 93 63 20 23 72 163 200 MB DIV 48 23 14 17 1 2 75 179 175 77 48 26 61 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -11 -25 -27 -10 -10 76 41 -31 -32 -30 LAND (KM) 30 52 75 147 204 -54 323 314 -1 98 850 1538 1039 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.9 23.5 26.5 32.3 39.6 45.7 49.0 49.5 48.0 46.5 LONG(DEG W) 89.1 88.8 88.4 87.2 85.9 81.4 74.7 67.9 60.6 51.8 41.4 30.9 21.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 9 13 19 33 44 43 37 33 34 34 32 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 4 12 104 23 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -9. -20. -31. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 14. 6. -5. -15. -25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 10/18/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 10/18/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 10/18/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)