* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932011 10/18/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 6 6 5 13 18 20 24 26 25 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 3 3 4 2 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 109 203 228 245 229 229 261 271 284 280 270 256 257 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 140 139 139 139 140 141 142 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 44 43 43 43 45 41 40 43 43 43 44 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 10 1 -2 -6 -11 -15 -7 -10 -17 -24 -21 -24 200 MB DIV 56 30 19 12 -3 -2 -9 -5 -6 16 25 59 83 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -2 0 1 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 1304 1326 1352 1382 1385 1422 1507 1616 1737 1839 1938 2053 2173 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.5 11.5 11.3 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 163.3 164.0 164.7 165.5 166.2 167.5 168.8 170.1 171.5 172.8 174.1 175.6 177.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 18 21 49 51 55 60 22 57 61 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932011 INVEST 10/18/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932011 INVEST 10/18/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##