* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 10/18/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 35 38 39 34 27 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 35 35 36 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 32 31 29 30 30 30 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 18 26 29 41 74 81 52 49 70 69 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 0 6 12 12 0 -5 0 -8 -8 -1 SHEAR DIR 255 250 202 202 212 203 198 202 214 235 241 239 240 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.5 27.8 27.0 20.6 16.4 12.9 11.6 10.3 8.7 6.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 148 149 140 131 87 75 67 65 65 65 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 141 148 140 128 82 71 64 63 63 64 64 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -50.4 -50.1 -51.6 -54.1 -55.4 -56.9 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 44 40 37 35 35 38 50 50 44 34 34 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 53 114 148 160 161 236 298 213 123 22 -54 -22 200 MB DIV 20 20 45 40 28 64 131 131 58 -1 -8 38 45 700-850 TADV 4 5 -8 -23 -15 -35 -173 -4 2 -6 -4 14 -20 LAND (KM) 156 202 269 330 54 218 51 -247 -412 -309 -111 11 -150 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.4 24.0 25.4 26.8 31.5 37.2 42.8 46.3 47.3 47.7 49.3 51.6 LONG(DEG W) 89.0 88.3 87.6 85.3 83.0 78.0 75.2 74.5 73.8 71.6 68.1 65.3 61.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 17 25 29 31 29 23 12 10 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 15 5 50 99 7 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 0. -11. -20. -27. -34. -40. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -1. 1. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 15. 13. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 2. 3. 3. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 4. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 10/18/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 10/18/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 10/18/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)