* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952011 10/18/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 37 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 30 33 30 29 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 27 28 29 30 30 33 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 30 33 39 81 65 24 38 67 91 105 98 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 12 7 8 1 0 0 -1 -11 -19 -11 SHEAR DIR 247 250 221 222 220 200 197 213 226 231 245 268 285 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.0 27.1 26.7 22.9 17.8 16.4 16.2 12.4 11.0 9.5 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 142 132 127 96 76 70 73 72 73 72 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 139 132 122 89 71 65 69 70 72 71 77 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -50.6 -50.0 -52.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 44 44 45 43 46 54 64 58 48 38 32 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 117 168 176 194 311 327 259 197 146 56 1 -24 200 MB DIV 17 50 55 85 93 133 91 25 2 8 6 -28 -70 700-850 TADV 8 2 -14 16 -25 -73 -49 7 -1 -8 -34 -87 -116 LAND (KM) 267 392 266 -7 134 -137 -420 -583 -437 -158 67 368 1112 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 25.2 26.4 28.5 30.6 35.7 40.6 43.1 43.9 45.7 47.4 46.8 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 88.2 86.7 85.1 82.6 80.0 78.1 79.8 80.2 76.9 70.0 60.0 48.1 39.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 25 31 28 25 19 10 19 31 37 37 35 HEAT CONTENT 28 108 39 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. -2. -12. -20. -28. -37. -48. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 17. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 7. 1. -4. -11. -20. -30. -42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952011 INVEST 10/18/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952011 INVEST 10/18/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952011 INVEST 10/18/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)