* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 10/21/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 47 56 65 68 70 69 69 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 47 56 65 68 70 49 34 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 44 54 65 73 76 54 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 8 10 9 11 12 17 20 22 24 32 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 0 -1 -5 -2 -9 -4 -5 -6 -8 -9 SHEAR DIR 52 31 10 35 53 61 119 110 129 120 121 115 111 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 28.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 162 163 161 160 160 162 163 158 147 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 156 157 156 155 150 149 148 151 155 153 142 133 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.3 -54.4 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 76 74 75 75 75 73 73 73 67 63 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 11 13 13 13 15 16 17 16 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 27 36 43 45 49 47 40 39 38 51 68 60 42 200 MB DIV 38 58 75 71 70 66 25 17 24 5 -4 -28 -22 700-850 TADV 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 6 3 6 2 2 LAND (KM) 353 289 227 173 121 95 81 79 60 34 -47 -66 25 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.3 11.8 11.2 10.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 80.7 81.4 81.9 82.4 82.7 82.8 82.8 83.0 83.3 84.2 85.2 86.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 2 3 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 45 44 41 25 22 16 14 9 7 58 27 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 2. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 22. 31. 40. 43. 45. 44. 44. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 10/21/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 10/21/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 10/21/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)