* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 10/21/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 51 61 70 76 75 79 79 75 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 51 61 70 76 75 79 79 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 45 56 68 78 83 83 80 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 11 9 11 8 12 11 13 16 13 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 -1 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 30 23 32 28 34 86 100 120 151 162 149 206 217 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 157 158 159 159 163 167 165 163 161 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 149 145 150 149 149 158 160 153 150 150 146 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -53.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 70 73 71 72 70 71 73 72 63 56 56 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 11 12 12 13 14 16 18 15 18 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 33 40 39 37 34 35 37 42 63 66 78 66 62 200 MB DIV 70 82 67 58 74 66 52 39 70 47 26 -3 25 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 0 -1 0 2 6 7 4 5 4 LAND (KM) 320 331 294 296 298 281 267 193 146 184 153 264 211 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 2 0 3 3 3 8 8 5 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 41 41 41 44 44 56 10 89 81 88 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. 4. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 26. 36. 45. 51. 50. 54. 54. 50. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 10/21/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 10/21/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 10/21/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)