* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 10/21/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 40 44 49 53 53 54 61 64 68 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 44 49 53 53 54 61 64 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 40 44 47 51 57 65 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 17 16 13 17 14 13 7 8 4 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 2 0 0 -6 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 181 181 177 183 177 183 170 212 257 264 320 211 309 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 147 145 145 145 153 160 163 163 160 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 154 152 147 143 139 140 150 159 163 163 157 158 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 71 71 68 63 58 58 54 56 53 56 54 56 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR 91 89 72 62 46 34 26 24 24 23 28 43 93 200 MB DIV 97 61 38 20 29 56 53 10 -6 11 41 51 75 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 LAND (KM) 306 371 454 493 504 526 530 502 280 231 209 144 77 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.1 13.1 14.6 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.8 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.2 56.3 56.3 56.7 57.0 58.1 59.7 61.9 64.6 67.4 70.2 72.8 75.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 11 11 10 8 9 12 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 48 53 62 63 60 67 69 93 90 68 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 894 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 19. 23. 23. 24. 31. 34. 38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 10/21/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 10/21/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 10/21/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)