* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 10/22/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 49 59 66 72 77 79 80 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 49 59 66 72 77 79 80 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 38 48 58 65 70 72 72 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 12 11 4 7 13 16 18 8 12 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 -4 -1 -3 4 4 3 2 SHEAR DIR 22 39 52 35 43 106 156 159 158 176 181 203 221 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 159 162 166 165 165 164 158 153 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 149 149 148 153 157 153 152 150 145 137 133 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 5 7 5 6 5 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 70 70 71 67 66 58 55 55 52 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 12 14 15 17 19 20 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 33 40 42 45 44 44 51 49 65 60 58 48 47 200 MB DIV 83 63 51 61 83 40 44 32 76 72 26 13 7 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 7 5 3 3 LAND (KM) 303 287 262 248 239 226 207 232 232 266 300 223 123 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 43 44 44 45 48 53 12 62 100 97 86 86 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 34. 41. 47. 52. 54. 55. 49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 10/22/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 10/22/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 10/22/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)