* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 10/22/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 25 26 25 23 23 22 23 27 31 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 25 26 25 23 23 22 23 27 27 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 21 19 17 16 16 17 19 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 26 26 29 27 31 25 25 23 21 19 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 6 5 7 3 0 -5 -7 -3 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 209 208 208 213 207 216 228 259 277 294 295 283 277 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 146 144 144 143 145 149 154 159 160 159 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 144 141 138 135 137 141 147 153 154 151 150 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 62 56 55 52 49 50 50 49 53 57 58 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 77 62 50 44 16 8 0 2 6 6 2 21 200 MB DIV 37 -5 -2 1 11 5 -3 -2 -25 1 18 33 66 700-850 TADV 0 6 10 10 5 10 5 4 7 2 3 9 4 LAND (KM) 491 512 537 559 605 670 530 309 83 21 28 -30 63 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.4 16.6 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.4 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 56.3 56.6 56.9 57.5 58.0 59.3 60.8 62.9 65.1 67.4 69.7 71.9 73.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 9 8 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 48 54 59 59 63 61 67 61 61 63 97 109 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 804 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -17. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. 2. 6. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 10/22/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 10/22/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 10/22/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)