* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 10/22/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 52 58 61 62 59 58 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 42 32 28 31 27 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 40 41 32 28 32 35 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 11 7 8 11 12 16 12 18 22 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -1 -4 -6 -4 -9 -4 -4 -4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 46 40 32 62 83 131 156 150 130 123 131 137 144 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.9 27.7 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 160 162 163 163 161 156 150 133 116 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 149 149 150 152 153 155 155 153 150 132 113 112 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 3 4 2 5 3 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 71 71 75 72 68 68 66 65 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 9 7 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 29 31 30 32 27 34 35 34 29 11 3 200 MB DIV 34 33 42 20 7 9 -15 20 15 7 6 -13 -27 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 1 5 6 8 6 3 5 4 LAND (KM) 195 178 162 146 124 54 -21 -140 -128 66 204 349 467 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.9 13.9 13.7 13.2 12.5 11.7 11.1 10.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.7 81.9 82.0 82.2 82.3 82.8 83.7 84.8 86.3 88.2 90.3 92.5 94.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 9 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 42 33 24 7 53 0 28 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 27. 33. 36. 37. 34. 33. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 10/22/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 10/22/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 10/22/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)