* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 10/22/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 44 48 50 49 49 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 44 48 50 49 49 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 46 50 53 55 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 12 13 10 16 16 17 13 19 22 26 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -7 -6 -3 0 -2 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 38 44 48 94 113 170 184 203 195 207 207 213 223 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 164 164 166 165 161 157 155 152 149 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 153 155 155 156 153 148 144 140 137 132 129 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 4 6 5 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 71 71 66 66 63 59 58 55 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 4 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 31 37 39 37 27 36 35 31 20 10 6 -5 200 MB DIV 39 50 37 27 26 10 -3 22 23 19 23 20 19 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 2 4 8 9 6 2 5 1 LAND (KM) 223 189 157 123 96 88 130 144 155 214 205 166 131 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 36 8 3 5 99 114 105 109 109 89 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 24. 24. 23. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 10/22/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 10/22/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 10/22/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)