* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 10/22/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 32 42 51 59 66 73 81 88 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 32 42 51 59 66 73 81 88 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 19 19 22 26 33 40 50 59 69 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 13 16 3 7 1 7 2 2 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -6 -3 -2 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 104 108 104 92 89 68 29 333 18 235 343 150 61 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 148 147 148 152 153 155 158 163 162 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 149 147 147 147 150 155 158 158 161 166 163 162 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 9 11 9 11 9 11 8 9 700-500 MB RH 66 62 61 61 60 61 64 63 65 66 65 67 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 40 32 31 34 41 38 48 39 44 51 58 200 MB DIV 21 25 20 34 53 12 10 7 19 4 21 11 29 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 438 446 464 378 304 188 222 233 59 92 224 381 377 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.9 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.4 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 55.6 56.2 56.8 57.7 58.6 61.0 63.9 66.9 69.8 72.6 75.2 77.5 79.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 11 13 14 15 14 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 53 58 59 61 68 62 65 48 29 70 90 71 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 31. 36. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 12. 22. 31. 39. 46. 53. 61. 68. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 10/22/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 10/22/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 10/22/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)