* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 10/23/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 42 49 58 66 71 78 82 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 42 49 58 66 71 78 82 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 37 44 54 67 79 92 101 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 19 15 12 9 9 9 3 2 6 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -5 -1 -2 0 1 1 1 -2 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 99 100 100 84 101 27 69 27 93 306 128 221 211 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 147 147 149 152 155 156 159 161 163 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 145 145 148 153 156 160 159 161 160 162 163 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 9 11 9 10 9 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 60 60 63 62 64 63 60 65 67 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 40 35 33 37 51 41 48 39 35 48 48 41 200 MB DIV 14 18 24 66 41 6 0 -3 17 5 40 30 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 3 0 6 2 5 2 5 LAND (KM) 485 489 470 380 300 183 231 194 112 168 304 380 364 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.7 14.3 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 55.7 56.3 56.8 57.8 58.7 61.5 64.6 67.6 70.5 73.1 75.4 77.6 79.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 11 15 15 15 13 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 58 60 62 63 68 55 64 49 53 71 98 94 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 13. 14. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 17. 24. 33. 41. 46. 53. 57. 57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 10/23/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 10/23/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 10/23/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)