* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 10/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 32 35 37 35 35 34 36 34 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 32 28 27 27 29 28 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 28 27 27 31 30 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 14 16 16 17 15 16 22 26 22 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 -1 -4 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 84 119 154 154 161 165 177 153 152 162 165 145 167 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.2 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 163 163 165 166 164 159 156 151 139 136 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 152 152 155 159 160 159 156 150 136 133 133 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 4 4 2 5 3 7 6 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 68 67 65 62 66 63 59 56 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 27 30 23 22 26 19 30 26 13 -1 -4 -20 200 MB DIV 2 12 18 14 -13 -5 18 10 5 -9 -9 -6 -14 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 2 6 10 14 14 6 4 3 2 6 LAND (KM) 236 215 194 155 120 36 -99 -153 -8 133 284 345 401 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.0 14.3 13.5 13.0 12.7 12.6 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.0 81.2 81.4 81.8 82.2 83.4 85.0 87.2 89.6 92.0 94.1 95.9 97.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 7 10 12 12 11 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 48 26 9 7 3 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 10. 10. 9. 11. 9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 10/23/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 10/23/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 10/23/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)