* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 10/23/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 42 40 39 38 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 42 40 39 38 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 42 44 44 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 17 15 14 19 16 20 20 26 24 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 -3 -3 -4 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 114 154 172 178 183 173 181 193 201 212 213 207 200 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 165 163 161 157 154 149 147 143 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 153 153 153 149 146 143 140 133 131 126 124 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 6 4 6 4 7 6 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 68 62 63 59 53 54 56 56 59 55 53 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 10 7 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 21 19 28 30 31 19 9 4 -11 1 11 200 MB DIV 13 28 31 9 -2 26 37 33 6 3 23 42 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 3 7 9 4 3 5 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 187 186 200 204 209 182 176 211 220 157 95 46 1 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 30 88 116 119 121 113 86 63 51 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 17. 15. 14. 13. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 10/23/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 10/23/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 10/23/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)