* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182011 10/24/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 48 52 56 57 55 53 51 48 43 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 48 52 56 57 55 53 51 41 32 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 47 50 56 61 65 69 71 71 57 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 13 15 17 14 13 16 18 19 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 153 162 172 171 163 181 176 170 172 186 179 184 187 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 165 164 164 163 159 156 153 151 152 148 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 153 151 150 150 149 146 142 138 136 137 134 129 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.3 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 6 6 4 6 4 8 6 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 60 57 55 52 53 57 57 63 57 60 64 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 10 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 22 24 33 35 28 40 17 28 12 11 11 -2 200 MB DIV 41 38 13 5 2 43 41 17 12 19 21 31 52 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 4 7 10 10 6 6 4 4 1 7 LAND (KM) 177 180 188 169 155 147 133 162 168 114 61 -23 -100 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.6 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 82.0 82.4 82.7 83.0 83.3 83.9 84.9 85.7 86.4 86.9 87.3 87.8 88.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 65 92 104 112 100 90 81 73 65 72 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 21. 22. 20. 18. 16. 13. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 EIGHTEEN 10/24/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 EIGHTEEN 10/24/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 EIGHTEEN 10/24/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)