* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/24/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 48 55 61 61 60 61 58 56 53 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 48 55 61 61 60 61 49 38 37 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 46 51 56 59 61 65 56 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 16 15 16 13 16 13 16 18 30 29 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -4 -1 -1 6 1 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 150 162 160 150 167 158 172 161 163 141 162 161 167 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 163 159 155 153 152 149 144 141 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 153 152 151 150 145 140 137 137 135 129 124 127 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 4 6 4 7 6 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 59 56 52 50 50 50 53 56 60 59 55 56 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 12 12 12 13 11 9 11 11 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 20 25 38 39 31 30 29 20 25 21 38 31 40 200 MB DIV 49 33 19 23 41 56 41 12 -12 36 35 66 83 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 7 6 9 6 2 1 -2 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 198 207 200 187 185 192 213 198 134 71 -15 -12 35 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.5 19.4 19.9 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.2 82.6 82.9 83.3 83.7 84.6 85.3 85.8 86.4 86.9 87.6 87.5 87.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 4 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 71 107 113 119 119 112 99 83 69 9 2 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 26. 26. 25. 26. 23. 21. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/24/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/24/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/24/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)