* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/24/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 65 69 75 77 75 70 64 60 57 50 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 65 69 75 77 75 70 64 60 57 43 V (KT) LGE mod 50 57 63 67 71 76 79 80 78 75 70 64 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 18 16 15 17 19 21 22 30 28 44 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 0 1 3 -3 -2 -4 -2 -1 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 135 154 159 173 172 159 159 168 169 169 165 163 182 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 161 161 163 161 158 150 146 145 143 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 145 147 146 148 147 143 135 129 128 126 122 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 4 6 4 7 5 8 7 8 5 700-500 MB RH 54 51 51 50 50 50 52 58 59 54 55 57 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 10 9 9 11 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 20 34 37 30 24 32 16 11 -5 10 30 43 23 200 MB DIV 39 27 33 32 34 42 44 27 -3 43 62 81 58 700-850 TADV 0 2 6 7 9 12 8 4 0 3 0 0 -5 LAND (KM) 208 201 201 201 210 202 226 146 63 34 39 25 -31 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.7 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.4 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.0 83.3 83.7 84.1 84.7 85.5 86.2 86.9 87.1 87.0 87.0 87.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 104 110 117 123 127 121 112 86 60 45 51 51 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 15. 19. 25. 27. 25. 20. 14. 10. 7. 0. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/24/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 116.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/24/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/24/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)