* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/24/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 78 81 84 88 87 82 76 68 65 58 53 V (KT) LAND 65 73 78 81 84 88 87 82 76 68 65 58 53 V (KT) LGE mod 65 75 82 86 89 92 92 89 84 78 72 65 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 16 14 14 16 20 22 22 29 28 43 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 1 1 0 4 -1 -3 -2 -3 0 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 155 160 167 156 142 163 160 174 158 176 165 178 180 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 161 161 161 161 157 154 148 145 145 146 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 146 146 147 148 143 139 132 128 127 128 130 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 6 5 7 5 7 8 9 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 51 49 50 55 58 56 55 57 60 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 31 26 29 20 10 4 -1 17 32 31 40 200 MB DIV 27 33 33 33 46 56 35 12 39 50 95 94 70 700-850 TADV 2 7 8 10 9 10 3 0 0 1 0 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 192 185 182 181 187 211 172 99 46 37 51 83 129 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.5 20.8 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.3 83.5 83.9 84.2 85.1 86.0 86.6 87.0 87.0 86.6 86.1 85.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 108 112 116 121 122 117 93 71 56 49 57 76 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 13. 16. 19. 23. 22. 17. 11. 3. 0. -7. -12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/24/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 115.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/24/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/24/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 6( 8) 9( 16) 11( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)