* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 10/24/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 56 67 76 84 93 98 98 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 56 67 76 84 93 98 98 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 41 50 61 75 92 109 115 107 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 6 11 11 5 9 1 6 6 4 11 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 1 1 1 0 2 -3 -4 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 37 46 26 19 17 322 353 65 345 53 355 210 231 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 151 156 158 159 161 161 164 164 155 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 154 154 155 160 161 160 159 158 158 154 142 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 12 9 10 9 9 9 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 62 59 63 64 62 61 66 65 66 69 69 70 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 81 70 61 57 52 32 46 35 52 47 42 47 49 200 MB DIV 24 14 16 8 26 -3 18 24 31 64 109 107 99 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 4 6 2 5 -1 0 -5 8 7 LAND (KM) 155 161 185 198 119 74 229 361 215 153 254 166 33 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.9 13.6 14.6 15.8 17.3 18.9 20.5 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 64.1 65.6 67.0 68.4 71.0 73.5 75.6 77.6 79.4 80.6 81.1 81.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 56 42 50 54 49 81 120 108 106 109 105 96 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 31. 42. 51. 59. 68. 73. 73. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 10/24/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 10/24/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 10/24/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)