* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 10/25/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 39 47 57 66 73 79 86 89 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 39 47 57 66 73 79 86 89 89 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 41 51 60 71 83 93 98 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 7 2 6 8 8 4 6 8 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 0 -3 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 71 69 31 24 238 347 309 293 250 187 172 188 206 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 154 156 159 159 159 161 162 164 163 159 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 154 157 157 160 160 158 159 158 155 152 145 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 12 11 9 9 8 9 9 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 62 62 66 66 68 68 71 68 68 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 57 56 54 48 42 48 33 35 57 73 63 64 200 MB DIV 17 23 19 24 31 18 48 27 55 88 111 83 72 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 -1 5 4 8 2 4 4 0 4 5 LAND (KM) 202 233 234 171 123 113 336 288 178 181 302 231 156 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.5 14.3 15.2 16.3 17.6 18.8 20.0 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.3 65.7 67.0 68.3 69.5 71.9 74.2 76.2 78.3 79.9 81.1 81.9 82.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 61 54 60 63 53 77 95 112 111 107 109 114 117 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 14. 22. 32. 41. 48. 54. 61. 64. 64. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 10/25/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 10/25/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 10/25/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)