* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/25/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 88 90 92 90 85 80 72 65 55 50 45 V (KT) LAND 80 85 88 90 92 90 85 80 58 58 48 39 39 V (KT) LGE mod 80 86 89 91 92 93 91 87 64 65 59 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 11 14 14 14 19 21 29 31 40 34 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 5 4 -2 -2 1 -3 2 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 159 147 139 141 148 166 180 180 187 193 192 198 203 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 161 160 153 145 139 138 143 145 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 148 148 147 146 140 130 123 122 126 127 128 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 6 5 4 6 6 8 7 6 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 52 50 48 48 49 52 50 50 46 53 53 47 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 15 14 15 13 11 13 13 16 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 30 27 31 29 17 3 -7 6 34 46 53 52 41 200 MB DIV 35 62 94 66 12 -5 15 57 55 54 73 43 44 700-850 TADV 10 16 14 14 8 3 3 1 1 0 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 182 175 174 185 201 180 91 22 -7 90 63 -10 33 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.6 17.7 18.2 19.2 20.3 21.4 22.1 22.3 22.2 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 83.5 83.9 84.3 84.8 85.2 85.9 86.6 87.1 87.0 86.4 85.1 84.2 83.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 116 119 118 116 112 97 65 41 0 25 89 75 111 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -9. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 12. 10. 5. 0. -8. -15. -24. -30. -35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/25/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 116.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/25/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/25/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 11( 17) 13( 28) 12( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)