* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 10/25/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 30 36 43 53 63 71 77 81 79 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 30 36 43 53 63 71 77 81 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 30 34 39 44 51 64 78 87 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 7 11 14 13 15 8 4 7 11 13 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -3 -3 -4 0 -2 -3 1 -3 -4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 23 22 351 337 338 304 304 327 96 137 170 194 244 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 158 158 160 161 161 164 165 160 153 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 153 156 160 160 161 162 159 156 153 145 137 126 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 9 9 10 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 62 64 64 70 68 68 63 54 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 42 43 42 42 47 39 22 62 88 70 73 39 200 MB DIV 8 6 1 1 -1 42 48 65 60 81 41 25 15 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 4 6 12 1 1 7 1 0 0 7 LAND (KM) 238 236 187 143 115 194 357 204 138 199 149 26 -27 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.8 14.7 15.9 17.4 19.0 20.3 21.4 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.3 66.5 67.7 69.0 70.3 72.9 75.3 77.6 79.3 80.0 79.9 79.7 80.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 9 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 67 60 60 74 57 80 123 105 118 109 101 84 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 11. 18. 28. 38. 46. 52. 56. 54. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 10/25/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 10/25/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 10/25/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)