* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL182011 10/25/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 96 99 97 95 90 82 75 65 57 49 41 V (KT) LAND 90 93 96 99 97 95 90 82 75 65 57 49 39 V (KT) LGE mod 90 93 94 95 96 95 92 85 78 70 62 54 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 10 10 13 17 18 27 31 37 36 33 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 2 -2 -3 0 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 122 145 152 142 144 164 164 186 190 200 210 210 230 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 162 158 152 145 140 140 143 146 144 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 149 149 145 138 129 124 123 126 127 123 121 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 7 6 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 55 54 50 49 47 49 43 37 36 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 14 15 12 14 15 15 16 14 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 10 11 5 -8 -3 19 37 35 49 25 20 200 MB DIV 91 74 23 13 10 4 58 71 55 61 25 30 15 700-850 TADV 10 19 4 3 1 3 2 0 -7 -11 -9 0 6 LAND (KM) 163 174 189 222 168 69 25 10 106 54 11 11 -11 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.3 20.4 21.3 22.0 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 84.3 84.7 85.1 85.6 86.0 86.8 87.0 86.8 86.1 85.1 83.9 83.5 83.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 4 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 116 119 120 119 101 66 51 11 57 78 76 79 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -9. -14. -19. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 7. 5. 0. -8. -15. -25. -33. -41. -49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182011 RINA 10/25/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 115.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 10.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182011 RINA 10/25/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182011 RINA 10/25/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 19( 29) 20( 43) 17( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 12( 14) 2( 15) 2( 17) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)